📈 Coronavirus Chart

β€’ Live Prediction


- Updated Loading... - Situation is improving. Lock downs may have been too much for the price. There is enough info out there, so I will shutdown this site on 2020-06-01.

Real-time prediction counter, an interactive chart of 4 day forecast, comparison of countries, probability of your infection, latest news, quiz, and discussion about the novel coronavirus. Updated daily. Predictions are blue points.


~ Predicted infected count calculating... infected
Above is real-time intraday prediction based on the model below.





The prediction of the outbreak progression is based on a very simple assumption that the counts will at first follow an exponential curve, at least at the beginning of the outbreak. Over time, instead, the s-curve shape will become dominant. The log scale chart of the time-series shows that growth of infected count currently is loading ... per day (geometric progression). Since the parameters of the geometric progression are changing, the prediction is calculated using only the latest 5 data points.
The time-series graph above tracks 2019–20 Wuhan coronavirus COVID19 (2019-nCoV, SARS-CoV-2) outbreak. The basic reproduction number is around 2.6 new infected per one sick. Common symptoms include fever, cough, and shortness of breath. Time from exposure to developing symptoms (incubation) of the virus is 2 - 14 days.

πŸ” Compare countries

Add your countries of interest via dropdown and button below. I recommend to use log-scale to contrast and compare growth acceleration of different countries. The data is thanks to Hopkins.




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☣ Probability of meeting the infected

Fill in your local numbers and click calculate. This is just a simple estimate and there may be a bug in the calculation. But it is the best I have as of 2020-03-12. It is calculated by estimating probability of not meeting any of the infected, but unconfirmed (not quarantined) people. The infected people are estimated based on claim that 80% of cases have mild symptoms and are not reported.
Total infected not quarantined:?
Daily probability meeting one or more infected person:?


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πŸƒ Today's Joke

mask do help

πŸ₯ Additional Info


πŸ‘¨β€βš•οΈ Coronavirus Prevention Quiz

(Autogenerated training quiz by Quizrecall from CDC's text.)

⇩ Download a pdf.

Question 1

The best way to prevent infection is to {{ ... }}.
  1. avoid being exposed to this virus
  2. be concerned about the risk of infection as well
  3. keep your hands on the soap

Question 2

However, as a reminder, CDC always recommends everyday preventive actions to help prevent the spread of respiratory viruses, including: Wash your {{ ... }}.
  1. hands, give every bite a chance to keep your nose open
  2. hands every day until you get a flu shot, get vaccinated, stay under control for 24
  3. hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds

Question 3

Use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer that contains {{ ... }}.
  1. antifungal immunoprecipients, not salt; run an inflatable swimming pool
  2. a soap bottle, scrubbing your hands frequently, washing hands frequently, combing your hands often
  3. at least 60% alcohol if soap and water are not available

Question 4

Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and {{ ... }}.
  1. mouth with unwashed hands
  2. neck, especially when wearing your shoes
  3. nose, as the infection can spread

Question 5

Avoid close contact with {{ ... }}.
  1. people who are sick
  2. your eyes when using soap during
  3. washing hands with soap

Question 6

Stay home when you {{ ... }}.
  1. need to use
  2. have to be
  3. are sick

Question 7

Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw {{ ... }}.
  1. your hands up, arms, hands, face
  2. the tissue in the trash
  3. it on the floor

Question 8

Clean and disinfect frequently touched {{ ... }}.
  1. objects and surfaces
  2. surfaces where you cannot
  3. tissues with dental iron

Question 9

These are everyday habits that can help prevent {{ ... }}.
  1. the spread of several viruses
  2. self-harm, destruction, more
  3. choking, but are one of the most important

Solution:
1. a, 2. c, 3. c, 4. a, 5. a, 6. c, 7. b, 8. a, 9. a,

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πŸ“’ Data Sources

Currently all data comes from Hopkins. On days prior 2020-04-05 the data was sourced from Wiki as described below.
The data is updated daily from Wuhan coronavirus outbreak wiki page.
The very early data till 2020-02-25 are sourced from various web pages since I found no good single source with both infected and dead historical data. The historical infected were collected from a wiki based on the expectation that before 2020-01-28, almost all infected and dead were in China. The data point for 2020-01-29 comes from the global estimates on the wiki linked refered to as "As of 30 January 2020". The historical data for the death toll comes from an page I cannot find now. And are then combined with the data point from NY Times 2020-01-27 and the wiki one for 2020-01-27.

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