Updated 2020-03-29 05:00 UTC - Compare countries growth of infected count on a log scale.
Real-time prediction counter, an interactive chart of 3 day forecast, comparison of countries, probability of your infection, latest news, quiz, and discussion about the novel coronavirus. Updated daily. Predictions are blue points.
Above is real-time intraday prediction based on the model below.
The prediction of the outbreak progression is based on a very simple assumption that the counts will at first follow an exponential curve, at least at the beginning of the outbreak. Over time, instead, the s-curve shape will become dominant. The log scale chart of the time-series shows that growth of infected count currently is loading ... per day (geometric progression). Since the parameters of the geometric progression are changing, the prediction is calculated using only the latest 5 data points.
The time-series graph above tracks 2019–20 Wuhan coronavirus COVID19 (2019-nCoV, SARS-CoV-2) outbreak. The basic reproduction number is around 2.62 new infected per one sick. Common symptoms include fever, cough, and shortness of breath. Time from exposure to developing symptoms (incubation) of the virus is 2 - 14 days.
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Add your countries of interest via dropdown and button below. I recommend to use log-scale to contrast growth acceleration of different countries. The data is thanks to Hopkins.
Fill in your local numbers and click calculate. This is just a simple estimate and there may be a bug in the calculation. But it is the best I have as of 2020-03-12. It is calculated by estimating probability of not meeting any of the infected, but unconfirmed (not quarantined) people. The infected people are estimated based on claim that 80% of cases have mild symptoms and are not reported.
Total infected not quarantined:
Daily probability meeting one or more infected person:
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Remdesivir and hydroxychloroquine shows promise in Covid-19 treatment, but deployment to your hospital could take months. Vaccine likely arrives in 2021. Isolation still the best as South Korea and China show.
If 1/n people are infected with a disease, a gathering of .7n people is likely to include at least one infected person. E.g. if 1% of people are infected, n = 100, so any gathering of 70 or more people probably includes an infected person.P. Graham
Large shortages in various goods will soon come due low manufacturing, low resupply, and stockpiling. China reported lowest manufacturing index since 2008. But is coming back online now.
Speculation: You can only limit the virus dose and postpone the time, but you will be infected eventually. If you will get sick after the pandemic, you may get better treatment and the docs may be prepared and resupplied.
The time between exposure and symptom onset is typically around 5 days, ranging 2 - 14 days. The time between symptom onset and death is typically around 14 days, ranging 6 - 41 days
Please make it through this and let me know if you have any suggestions.
The data is updated daily from Wuhan coronavirus outbreak wiki page.
The very early data till 2020-02-25 are sourced from various web pages since I found no good single source with both infected and dead historical data. The historical infected were collected from a wiki based on the expectation that before 2020-01-28, almost all infected and dead were in China.
The data point for 2020-01-29 comes from the global estimates on the wiki linked refered to as "As of 30 January 2020". The historical data for the death toll comes from an page I cannot find now. And are then combined with the data point from NY Times 2020-01-27 and the wiki one for 2020-01-27.
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